tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16754447097779403252024-03-13T05:17:38.838-07:00A Hal of a Blog (By Hal Lillywhite)Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.comBlogger200125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-12571004861510653952020-07-02T13:50:00.001-07:002020-07-02T13:50:48.323-07:00<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Effect and Cause, Part 3</div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
“<i>Theory
without empirical evidence is mere speculation. Empirical evidence
without theory is simply a collection of facts. Theory supported by
empirical evidence is science” </i><i>(From my book, Freedom or
Serfdom?”</i></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
We’ve discussed how there can be several possible causes for an
effect, several theories as it were about how it happened. That of
course raises the question, “How do we know which, if any, of those
theories is correct?” A good question, an important question, and
sadly a question with an unpleasant answer. The simple answer is
that, in most cases, the answer is beyond human ability. We cannot
know if some new theory will come along, better than what we have.
Nor can we know if new data will invalidate what now appears to be a
solid conclusion.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Perhaps the best example of this is the physics Isaac Newton gave us.
There was a saying that Newton was lucky, there was only one universe
and he got there first. At the start of the twentieth century it
looked like physics was complete, only a few minor questions to
answer and all would be known. Scientists regarded Newtonian physics
as essentially a perfect theory, well established and never to be
overturned. Then along came people like Einstein, Bohr, and Planck.
Today we know that Newton’s physics is only an approximation to
reality, a great approximation for most conditions, but an
approximation that breaks down at very high speeds or very small
sizes. Newton’s physics can still help us put a man on the moon,
but fails if that man travels at speeds approaching that of light,
and it fails when we try to describe the motion of an electron.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
So what can we do with our theories? We really need some
understanding of cause and effect, so how do we decide which theories
to, at least provisionally, accept? Books have been written on the
problem so we will obviously not get a full answer here, but we can
make a start, and that start will suffice in most cases. There are at
least four characteristics we require:</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
First, the theory must be in agreement with data. Newton’s theories
met this requirement until new data showed them to apply only under
certain conditions.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Second, theory must in some sense be verifiable. Philosopher of
science Karl Popper said that a theory must be falsifiable. It must
be conceivable that experiment produces a result contrary to the
theory. A classic example is that some might claim that there are
invisible, undetectable elephants in the room. If they are
undetectable, the theory cannot be falsified. A more important
example is the claim that socialism is the best economic system, if
only the right leaders are in charge. That theory cannot be falsified
because any contrary data is explained away with the claim that it
wasn’t real socialism because the wrong people were in charge. Thus
the idea of science supporting socialism fails Popper’s test, those
claims are not science.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Third, though not a strict requirement, it is useful if the theory
predicts something verifiable but previously unknown and not
consistent with competing theories. Einstein’s general theory of
relativity did this with its prediction of how gravity affects light,
a prediction since verified.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Fourth, again not a strict requirement, but we want the theory to be
as simple as feasible. This is known as Occam’s Razor, we prefer
the simplest theory that fits the facts. That is a useful rule to
pick which theory we will find most easily used, but of course does
not preclude some more complicated theory working better when more is
known.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
With all that, we have some indication of which theories we might
accept, but there is more. We must keep our minds open. A theory may
offend our sensibilities, but Nature cares not at all about what we
want to be true. We may want to think there is no difference between
ethnic groups, but Nature disagrees, at least in the sports world.
Blacks in the U.S. are mostly of West African extraction and they
dominate in the NFL and NBA, but are not known for distance running.
Meanwhile, Kenyans are not famous as sprinters, but they pretty much
own distance events like the Boston Marathon. No that is <i>not</i>
reason to discriminate, all should have equal opportunity to try. It
is, however, reason to expect that different groups will have
different outcomes.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
One thing we should not require is that the theory make sense to the
human mind. In fact, any real advance in science tends to sound
weird, sometimes downright crazy. During one conference on quantum
physics, Niels Bohr was quoted as saying, “We here in the back are
agreed that your theory is crazy. The question which divides us is,
is it crazy enough?” Bohr understood that progress means change,
sometimes radical change. (However, that does not mean that change is
progress. Sometimes change can be detrimental. Let us not seek change
for the sake of change.)</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
If we can find theories that fit the facts, are verifiable, and guide
our actions appropriately, that is about all most of us can hope for.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-21855245610649101232020-06-29T15:36:00.002-07:002020-06-29T15:36:56.287-07:00<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
Effect and Cause, Part 2</div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
“It
ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what
you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (attributed to Mark Twain)</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
My friend Randy loaned me a book. I read a chapter or two, then gave
it back to him. Why?</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
The obvious reason would be that I did not like the book. A theory
that fits the facts so far, but wrong. I liked it very much.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Or maybe Randy asked me to return it, he wanted to look at something
in the book. Wrong again.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Was I too busy to read the book. Nope, that is not the reason either.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Any one of those possible reasons might explain the fact that I
returned the book, yet none is correct.</div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">The real reason? I liked that book
so much that I went out and bought my own copy.</span><sup><span style="font-style: normal;"><a class="sdfootnoteanc" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote1sym" name="sdfootnote1anc"></a></span></sup></div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Knowing a </span><i>possible</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
cause for something does not prove that to be the </span><i>actual</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
cause. For most events, there are many possible causes, and the most
obvious suspect may or may not be the real cause. We often find
ourselves in the position of a detective trying to determine who
committed a murder. Was it the man seen fleeing the scene? Should the
detective fixate on that one suspect, he may miss the real criminal.
That fleeing man may be quite innocent, perhaps running in fear for
his own life. Are there other possible suspects? The beneficiary of
his life insurance? Someone who held a grudge against the victim? A
suspect not yet even on the radar?</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">In the early stages of the
investigation, any competent detective will keep an open mind. If he
jumps to conclusions, he will be victim of the blind spot of assuming
that one possible villain must be </span><i>the </i><span style="font-style: normal;">villain.
In most cases, there are many possible villains and he must find the
right one.</span></div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Likewise, when we seek the cause of some problem, there may be
multiple “suspects,” even some we may not know about. Our task is
to find the “guilty” party and gather enough evidence to get a
“conviction.” Indeed, the first step is sometimes to determine if
what we see is really a problem, or just random fluctuations in how
things happen.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Just because a theory makes sense does not make that theory true.
There may be other theories, as good or better that also fit the
facts. And there may be important facts yet unknown that would blow
the theory to bits.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
For example, I belong to an organization of nearly 100 members. Those
members include not a single black person. What can you conclude
about that organization? Why the racial imbalance? Many in today’s
world would scream “racism,” but could there be other reasons?
There are, though I do not claim to know all of them. First this is a
mountain rescue team. To do our job, we must recruit from among
competent mountaineers, and there are few Blacks with the requisite
skills. In my entire life I’ve only met one black person who
enjoyed mountaineering, a man who learned the skill as a ranger in
the army.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Of course, that raises another question: why are black people so
underrepresented in mountaineering. To that I must respond as does
Tevye in the musical “Fiddler on the Roof.” “That I can answer.
I don’t know.” Surely the mountains and woods care not a bit
about the skin color of people enjoying their beauty, nor have I ever
seen any evidence that any mountaineering organization is prejudiced.
And Blacks in many sports have demonstrated tremendous physical
ability, ability that could transfer to mountaineering.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Why are there so few black mountaineers? A good question. I wish I
had a good answer.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
Part of the answer may be cost, since the gear and training for
mountaineering can be moderately expensive, but that cannot be the
entire answer. Nor can accessibility. There are plenty of Blacks
living near mountains. I can only conclude that, for some reason,
Blacks are not as interested in mountaineering as are Whites. That
lack of interest might also explain why we have no Blacks on our
rescue team. Why are they are not interested? I have no idea.</div>
<div style="font-style: normal; line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
I do know that anyone accusing our team of racism or sexism would be
wrong.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-27542209210958616692020-06-26T15:25:00.000-07:002020-06-26T15:25:21.720-07:00
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: medium;">Effect
and Cause, Part 1</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Suppose
you drive by a bar and see two men fighting. What would you guess
caused that fight? Maybe it is over a woman, an argument over a pool
game, or maybe they have a preexisting dispute, or any of a myriad of
other possible causes. The fact that there is a fight does not tell
you what caused it. That is part of a general rule: knowing about the
effect does not usually tell you the cause. In fact it is common for
more than one cause to work together to create an effect.</div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
Now
let's change things just a bit. Again two men are going at it tooth
and nail, but now one is white, one is black. Does that change our
conclusion? It should not. Every possible cause of a fight between
two white men is also a possible cause of a fight between a white man
and a black man. True, there is one more possible cause in this case,
but the operative word is <i>possible. </i><span style="font-style: normal;">For
all we know, the two men may have had a previous dispute, an argument
over a woman, a disagreement over a bet, etc. Racism may or may not
have had anything to do with it.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">The
sad fact is that, in today's world, too many assume that any dispute
between people of different skin colors must be due to racism. It
ain't necessarily so! It is quite possible for a white and a black
man to fight over a woman, over who won a bet, over which football
team is better, etc.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 200%; margin-bottom: 0in; text-indent: 0.4in;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">This
knee-jerk reaction causes a lot of turmoil today. For example, we are
now afflicted with demonstrations, mob action, even looting, all
blamed on the murder of George Floyd. All reasonable people can agree
that Floyd's death was terrible, but was racism involved? Probably
not. We have no evidence of racist motives on the part of Officer
Chauvin. Instead, we know that they had a previous dispute because
Floyd accused Chauvin of being too harsh when they worked together in
a security job. Barring new evidence, we should not blame racism for
that murder. It is of course possible that racism was involved in the
dispute, but that is speculation, and we should not make policy on
the basis of speculation and guesswork, nor should we riot on that
basis.</span></div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-55445681537379633942016-04-11T13:14:00.000-07:002016-04-11T13:14:39.645-07:00Human Rights<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">We’ve all heard the screams of anguish. North
Carolina and Mississippi are denying homosexuals their human rights. Companies
and entertainers refuse to have anything to do with those states because of their
“crimes.” The heinous “crimes” include not forcing people to violate their
religious beliefs, and not forcing young women to share restrooms and shower
facilities with men.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Let’s look at what human rights really are.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First, most of us in the U.S. believe that we have a
constitutionally protected right to free exercise of religion. Note the wording;
that amendment tries to protect not just belief, but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">exercise</i> of that religious belief. As long as the religious
exercise does no overt harm to others, it is to be protected.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Second, most of us believe it a human right to not
expose our private parts to members of the opposite sex unless we chose to do
so voluntarily. That requires restroom and locker room facilities separated by
sex, and that sex is to be determined by body construction. A man or teenage
boy who “identifies” as a woman does not thereby obtain the right to share a
shower or restroom with our teenage daughter. The irony is that many claim that
a constitutional right to privacy allows for unrestricted abortion, then they
turn right around and deny right to privacy to women in restrooms and locker
rooms.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Sadly, many today claim that “human rights” include
the right to force people to act contrary to conscience, to photograph or bake
cakes for homosexual weddings. That is true even though the “aggrieved” could
easily find another photographer or baker. They also claim that it is a human
right for a biological male to claim to identify as female and enter the precincts
where real females should be able to expect privacy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This would be laughable if the results weren’t so
serious and if the proponents of these new “rights” weren’t </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">so successful at
publicizing their ideas. The promoters of these new “rights” are making inroads
on the real human rights we all should have. They use law, money, and celebrity
to convince people to ignore the obvious and support this nonsense. That will
continue unless those who believe in our true human rights speak out – loudly and
often.</span></div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-87782454709855922182016-03-24T11:45:00.000-07:002016-03-24T11:45:30.150-07:00Living in a Fantasy World
Fantasy can be fun. Movies, books etc.
that show life outside what we live on a daily basis entertain us.
They are especially attractive to children who do not yet fully
understand the world we live in. Who among us, when young, did not
think that maybe we could learn to fly like Peter Pan or to use magic
to get what we wanted?
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
That is normal for children. Adults
however, if they want to live reasonable lives, must face reality.
Tinker Bell will not sprinkle pixie dust on us, nor will we find any
magic wand capable of creating the food or anything else we want. As
we grow up, we should learn that we get what we need by understanding
reality and working with it, not by trying to change that reality –
or worse, by pretending that reality is different from what it really
is.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Sadly, many “adults” today do not
seem to understand those simple facts, and their fantasies do more
than their share of damage. We have just seen this in Belgium as
Islamic fanatics murdered people at the airport and a metro station.
Much of Europe has swallowed the line that, if only treated kindly,
those fanatics will become good, law-abiding people. That is an
attractive fantasy, but reality refuses to go along. If those
European rulers were to look at the record they would see that the
fanatics have never changed their goals nor their willingness to use
violence to achieve those goals. Their pixie dust is an illusion.
Those fanatics believe that they have a divine mandate to impose
Sharia law on the world, and they are willing to die to reach that
goal. No amount of kind welcoming will change that.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nor is our U.S. president immune to
such magical belief. He wants to admit Islamic “refugees” by the
thousands, but offers no way to separate the dangerous potential
terrorists from the real refugees. That kind of magical thinking gets
people killed.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
But why do we have leaders living in
Fantasyland? In a democratic system there is an obvious reason: too
many voters live in Fantasyland, voters who think government has some
magical solution to all our problems. They fail to notice that:</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Government has no magical source of
goods or services to provide to the people. It only has what it takes
from those people.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Government has no source of wisdom
beyond that of ordinary people. Imperfect people select government
functionaries from among the imperfect people actually available in
this imperfect world.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Government has no greater integrity
than that of those imperfect people who select other imperfect people
to hold power.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Voters must think reality, not fantasy.
Our security, our economy, and our freedom depend on it. We must
reject the pie in the sky fantasy that many politicians promise.
Those promises may sound attractive, but the real world rejects them.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-20806108409293745822016-03-12T08:56:00.001-08:002016-03-12T08:57:51.406-08:00Presidential Elections: The Longest Lasting ConsequencesThere are many issues for voters to
consider in any presidential election. However, the longest-lasting
legacy of any president must be among the most important. Most
presidential decisions can be changed a few years down the road but
there is one exception: Supreme Court Appointments.
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The Supreme Court is effectively the
last word, accountable to no-one. Five justices form a majority on
that court, giving them the closest thing we have in this country to
dictatorial power. Indeed, at times they do seem to have dictatorial
powers. Their decisions stand, and the voters have no means of
changing those decisions.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Voters must consider carefully what
kind of justices the next president is likely to appoint. That
president will probably appoint at least three new justices. Obama's
two appointees, Sotomayor and Kagen, will likely remain on that court
for decades, as will those three new justices. If the new appointees
are similar to the Obama appointees, that will give them decades of
absolute majorities on that court, the ability to impose unchangeable
rulings on the people.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
So which candidate is most likely to
appoint good justices, rather than leftist sycophants? Certainly not
either of the democratic candidates. Clinton or Sanders would appoint
leftists to that court. Trump? That is essentially unknown, the only
hints we have are his history of supporting things like condemnation
of private property to give it to other private entities, and
federally controlled health care. The probabilities do not look good,
it is doubtful that he would appoint defenders of constitutional
freedom to any court.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Of course there are always a lot of
unknowns in electing a president. However, I believe that the
candidate most likely to appoint good justices is Ted Cruz. Of all
the candidates, he is most committed to the constitution. Voters must
consider that when deciding how to cast their ballots.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-81922258053054108272016-03-04T13:42:00.000-08:002016-03-04T13:42:31.743-08:00Cutting off Your Nose to Spite Your Face
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Voters are angry, justifiably so. They
gave control of both house and senate to the Republicans on the
promise that those elected would do things like stop executive
amnesty, funding of Planned Parenthood, stop Obamacare, etc. The
Republicans then turned around and acted like Obama sycophants. Their
campaign promises were as trustworthy as a Hillary Clinton claim.
They betrayed the voters who now want revenge.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Unfortunately, that anger is not a good
guide for voters. In their desire to strike back, many of those
voters are harming the very causes they support. Let's face it,
Donald Trump is unlikely to do any of the things voters supported in
2014. Even his main issue, the promise to build a wall along the
border, is in serious doubt. Allegedly, in an off-the-record
interview with the <i>New York Times, </i><span style="font-style: normal;">
he said he doesn't really believe what he is saying about stopping
illegal entry. The fact that he refuses to have the tape of that
interview released leads me to believe that the claim is true, he has
no intention of building a wall or otherwise restricting illegal
entry to this country.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">If we
make the mistake of electing Trump, I doubt we will see much of
anything different than if we elect Hillary Clinton. Reacting in
anger can cause us to jump from the proverbial frying pan into the
fire.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Related
to the issue of illegal aliens are the job losses and underemployment
many families face. That is partly, but not totally, due to illegal
aliens taking jobs otherwise available to citizens. Again, reacting
in unthinking anger is national suicide. That is reminiscent of the
way Hitler took power in Germany. As I wrote in my book, </span><i>Freedom
or Serfdom?:</i></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
“<span style="font-style: normal;">How
could Hitler get enough voter support to become chancellor? The
answer is that the Germans were desperate, and desperate people may
grasp at any straw. The Treaty of Versailles imposed onerous
reparations on the country. That and other problems devastated the
economy. Formerly prosperous families found themselves with little or
nothing. As Hayek puts it, “It should never be forgotten that the
one decisive factor in the rise of totalitarianism on the Continent,
which is ye</span><i>t absent in England and America, is the
existence of a large recently dispossessed middle class.”</i><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>[1]</i></span></span></a></div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
“<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As
I write this, the American middle class is under siege. Should much
of that middle class fall on hard times, that could open the way for
a demagogue to take power</span></span> .”</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
When I wrote that, I had no idea that
Trump, who I consider to be very much a demagogue, would seriously
contend for the presidency. I did suspect that another demagogue,
Hillary Clinton, would be the democratic candidate but it had not
occurred to me that voters in November might face the choice between
two such demagogic candidates. I do not want to claim the mantle of
prophet, but I'm afraid we might face exactly that. I may vomit in
the election booth.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Let us hope that voters will wake up
and not let their anger do the voting, rational thinking is much
better.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<hr align="LEFT" size="1" width="257" />
<div dir="LTR" id="ftn1">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span></a>
<span style="font-size: small;">Hayek, op cit, p215</span><br />
</div>
<div align="JUSTIFY" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-43296373396309032242016-02-26T13:14:00.000-08:002016-02-26T13:14:18.700-08:00A Potential NightmareDo we want a psychopath as president? I
make no claim to be qualified to diagnose that condition, nor can the
experts make such a diagnosis from a distance. However we have reason
to be concerned. Here is a snippet from Chapter 22 of my book,
<i>Freedom or Serfdom?</i>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
How can we, citizens untrained in psychology, recognize the
psychopath? Sorry, we can't. Even those qualified to diagnose the
condition cannot do so at a distance. That is the bad news. The good
news is that we do not need a solid diagnosis. We need only know that
a candidate has signs consistent with the condition. Any candidate
having most of the characteristics of psychopathy is qualified only
for rejection, be he a true psychopath or not.</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Psychopaths are described as “without conscience, incapable of
empathy, guilt, or loyalty to anyone but themselves.”<sup><a class="sdfootnoteanc" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote1sym" name="sdfootnote1anc"><sup>1</sup></a></sup>
They will have most of the following traits:</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Superficial</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Grandiose</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Deceitful</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Lack of remorse</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Lack of empathy</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Refusal to accept responsibility</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Impulsive</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Lack of goals</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Irresponsible</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Poor behavioral control</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Adolescent antisocial behavior</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Adult antisocial behavior<sup><a class="sdfootnoteanc" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote2sym" name="sdfootnote2anc"><sup>2</sup></a></sup></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0.49in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Those traits are red flags, the
growl before the dog bites. They warn us to avoid the candidate,
though the personality of the psychopath distracts from that warning.
Note, however, that lack of goals will not show up in the political
psychopath. That psychopath does not lack goals, he has very
ambitious goals – all relating to himself.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">I believe readers will see the
resemblance with the leading candidates for president in each of our
major political parties. I believe that both Hillary Clinton and
Donald Trump are superfici8al, grandiose, and deceitful. Both seem to
lack remorse and refuse to accept responsibility. I do not know
either well enough to know if they lack empathy, but their disregard
of others suggests that they do. Both are irresponsible, refusing to
accept blame for anything. That is enough to raise a red flag, nay a
crimson flag!</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Note also: Not all psychopaths are
violent. Some are white-collar criminals. Some stay within the law,
though seldom within normal ethical boundaries – and they fool
people with ease. The white-collar psychopath is a talented deceiver.
He uses his personality, his mind, and his silver tongue to separate
people from their money, to acquire high-paying jobs, or to reach
positions of power. He is the ultimate narcissist; and as far as can
be determined he has, literally, no conscience. He is, however,
charming, persuasive, often charismatic – and a world-class liar.
He could run a red light, hit your car, and convince you that it was
your fault.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">I do not know if either Trump or
Clinton is a true psychopath. However, there are enough warnings that
having to chose between the two for president is a nightmare.</span></div>
<div id="sdfootnote1">
<div class="sdfootnote">
<a class="sdfootnotesym" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote1anc" name="sdfootnote1sym">1</a>
I <span style="font-size: small;">Paul Babiak, PhD and Robert D. Hare, PhD, </span><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Snakes
in Suits, When Psychopaths go to Work, </i></span><span style="font-size: small;">Harper
2006, p19</span></div>
</div>
<div id="sdfootnote2">
<div class="sdfootnote">
<a class="sdfootnotesym" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote2anc" name="sdfootnote2sym">2</a>
<span style="font-size: small;">Ibid, p17</span></div>
</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-50399355036721511312016-02-15T20:31:00.000-08:002016-02-15T20:31:05.324-08:00Replacing Justice Scalia
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
With the untimely death of Supreme
Court Justice Antonin Scalia, we can expect a major discussion (near
war might be a more appropriate description) about his replacement.
The statists are salivating over the possibility of another justice
such as Sotomayor or Kagan, justices who would rubber stamp big,
intrusive government. Freedom lovers, on the other hand have reason
to fear such a new justice. There is little doubt that President
Obama will try to put another of their ilk on the court; the only
hope for liberty is the Senate.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Supreme Court justices have lifetime
tenure, barring retirement or impeachment – and we have never
impeached one of them. Each is effectively one fifth of a
dictatorship since five justices can make a rule from which there is
no appeal.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
We must get the right people on that
court.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Sadly, in recent years the biggest
absence in the Senate has been Republican backbone. Republicans won
big in the 2014 election, primarily on the basis of voter opposition
to Obama's overreach. Yet they have failed to use their majority to
block that overreach. Indeed, earlier they could have blocked
Sotomayor and Kagan. They had the votes, along with reason to believe
those two would be exactly the kind of justices they have turned out
to be. Yet the Republicans acquiesced like a drunk giving in to the
offer of another drink. Checks and balances were AWOL.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Our senators take an oath to defend the
Constitution. They have not only a right, but a sworn duty to reject
any prospective judge who is likely to weaken that Constitution. That
duty is especially important when they consider Supreme Court
appointments. They must insist on the following requirements before
they approve any judge:</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
Absolute integrity<br />
Commitment to Constitution and Law<br />
Subordination of Personal Belief to Law and Constitution<br />
Intellectual ability<br />
Knowledge of law and Constitution<br />
The inner strength to stand up for what is right.<br />
(Detail and reasoning behind those requirements is found on
pp132-134 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom?</i><span style="font-style: normal;">).</span><br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">There must be no compromise on
those requirements. Any prospective justice who fails in even one of
them is not qualified to occupy the bench.</span><br />
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-89913936799570021452016-02-11T15:50:00.000-08:002016-02-11T15:50:57.864-08:00The Legitimate Sphere of Government<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<b></b><br /></div>
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Just what is the legitimate
sphere of government? Let's look at a few examples:</div>
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You go on vacation, driving on an interstate highway built under
government direction.</div>
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<br /></div>
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The fire department responds to your neighbor's house fire.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Burglars would break into your cousin's
apartment, except the police caught them during a
previous crime and they are now in jail.</div>
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<br /></div>
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A foreign tyrant looks enviously at Alaskan oil, but leaves it
alone when he sees the ability of our military.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Your nephew lives downstream from a factory that might pollute the
river if it were not for the laws against that pollution.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Those represent legitimate functions of government. They provide
what economists call <i>external </i><i>costs and </i><i>benefits, </i>or<i> </i><i>externalities</i>. Externalities are defined as costs or benefits accruing to someone
not directly involved in the transaction. Your cousin is not
involved in the burglars' “business” but he would pay if
government didn't enforce the law. As citizens we are not involved in the tyrant's “business,” but we lose if
government fails to defend the country. Individually, you paid next to
nothing to build that freeway,
but many people travel on it. Those are all externalities. Externalities and nothing else are the properly
the domain of government.</div>
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However that does not mean that government should automatically
meddle with all external costs and benefits. It should determine
if a proposed action is really worth doing,
fair, and worth the cost. For example, it should
not build the new road that primarily benefits the mayor's cousin, nor should it
build a fancy stadium that brings minimal benefit to the people.
Government should also avoid actions that unduly restrict freedom, even if those actions fall within the sphere
of external benefits. Some would claim
that government should do things like dictate the colors houses should be painted. Free
men, however, would object on the grounds that people should make their own choices in such matters, not
force their idea of beauty on others. We should remain free unless there are
strong and compelling reasons to impose a restriction.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-45588897151629358852016-02-02T19:56:00.002-08:002016-02-02T19:56:44.127-08:00Government by Delegation
Where does any government get the right
to exercise authority over citizens? Prior to 1776 most in the
western world thought that kings had some divine right to rule. That
made sense only if you both believed in God and and believed that He
had somehow picked the king of your country. Most today would reject
that concept. In fact our Declaration of Independence rejects it, as
indicated in the following from pp127-128 of my book, <i>Freedom or
Serfdom?</i>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="df6ffn2f98_14"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="df6ffn2f98_4"></a>
“ 'That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted
among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the
Governed.' “That stood previous ideas of government on their heads.
Government exists, not for kings and other rulers, but for and at the
pleasure of the banker, the farmer, the garbage hauler, etc.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
“That phrase deserves special attention. Government power comes
from the consent of the governed. In other words, we the citizens
delegate our power to the government. It becomes our agent, to act in
our name with such power as we choose to allow. That simple phrase
not only means that the people are to rule, but adds another
requirement for limited government. We can delegate only the
powers and rights we ourselves possess. We have a right to defend
ourselves; let's delegate at least part of that right to the police
and the military. We have the power to build roads and bridges; let's
delegate that power to government. We have a right to demand that a
factory not dump mercury into our waters; delegate that to government
as well.<br />
“There are, however, rights we do not have and therefore cannot
delegate to government or to any other entity. We do not have the
right to hold other humans as slaves, therefore we cannot delegate to
government the right to approve slavery. We have no right to force
our neighbor to paint his house the color we prefer; therefore we
cannot delegate that right to government. We have no right to force
our neighbor to buy the insurance we think he should buy; therefore
we cannot delegate such power to government.”<br />
<br /><br />
<br />
This concept is at the root of limited government – limiting
even democratic government. If 99% of the people want to enslave
someone, decree how houses shall be painted, etc., they have no right
to do so. Numbers may make strength but they do not make right. That
which is immoral for an individual remains immoral for a democracy.<br />
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-9766089313744547892016-01-29T19:47:00.001-08:002016-01-29T19:47:50.576-08:00Why Trump and Clinton Lead in the Polls
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Related to my last blog (“The Sound,
the Fury, and the Important”), just what is driving Donald Trump
and Hillary Clinton to in the polls? That I can answer in one word:
Media. Each gets so much media attention that they have an advantage
with voters.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Both Hillary and Trump were already
celebrities, well known and with lots of media coverage. Trump had
been famous for his so-called business success (though an examination
shows that success to be overblown, since he inherited his business,
then faced multiple bankruptcies). Hillary rode to fame on the
coattails of her husband. Both enjoyed celebrity status long before
they even announced their candidacies. The news media, which fawns
over movie stars and other celebrities, naturally gave them more
valuable publicity than it did to less famous people.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The other effect, the reason that extra
media coverage is so important, is that it is human nature to trust
the familiar more than we trust the unknown. The devil you know is
better than the devil you don't know. That is a well documented fact,
cognitive psychologists have long understood the phenomenon. It
affects everything from race relations to food preferences – and it
affects voting. Similarly with politicians. If we recognize a
politician's name and face we can develop a trust in him, a trust
lacking in his less well-known opponent.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
That is the reason we see so many
political ads that emphasize the name of the candidate but say
nothing about his qualifications. Candidates know that many voters
tend to support someone they recognize, even if they really know
little about him. That is a dangerous tendency in any democratic
government. The demagogues use it to manipulate voters.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
What can we do about it? I know of no
solution other than to understand the problem and make deliberate
efforts to overcome it. As citizens, we must look beyond the surface
of political campaigns. We must learn about each candidate's honesty,
ability, commitment to our way of government etc. We must vote on the
basis of those qualification and do our best to ignore name
familiarity, physical appearance, etc. Only by so doing can we reject
the demagogues and elect men and women who will serve us well.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-25882742270430086402016-01-26T17:18:00.003-08:002016-01-26T17:18:59.674-08:00The Sound, the Fury, and the Important
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The Sound, the Fury, and the Important</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump: They
lead the polls for their respective party presidential nominations,
but what do most people really know about them? How many prospective
voters can name even one of Hillary's accomplishments as Secretary of
State? (Don't feel bad, she couldn't either.) How many could describe
Trump's stance on such things as abortion, big government etc? (Don't
feel bad, hardly anyone else can either – at least with any
confidence of being right.) They lead in the polls, not because of
reasoned voter decisions, but because they get so much publicity. And
that publicity is essentially independent of the important issues.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
What gets publicity? The celebrities,
spectacular, the event that will draw people to pay attention to the
news and thus to their advertisers. Meanwhile, the important but less
spectacular passes unnoticed. For example, I have been involved in
mountain rescue for nearly 30 years. During that time I have
participated in several widely publicized searches, even been on TV
and been quoted, in large type, on the front page of the state's
largest daily newspaper. By searching in the woods and mountains I
have helped save a few people, which is great. However, what is
undoubtedly my most useful “rescue” activity goes completely
unnoticed, and even I have no idea how many people I may have saved.
That activity is participating in our rescue team's public education
program, providing information on how to avoid trouble. That program
attracts no media attention, the person who avoids trouble because of
what we taught him does not make the news. Yet that program almost
certainly saves more lives than we do tromping around the woods. Its
effectiveness is completely unrelated to the publicity it receives.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Both Trump and Clinton remind me of
Daniel J. Boorstin's quote that “a celebrity is a person who is
known for his well-knownness.” Both are very well known and attract
a lot of attention, especially from the media. (One recent cartoon
showed Trump as the pied piper, leading the news media. In my opinion
a very appropriate image.) But what have they done for the country?
What would they do for or to the country if elected? Few if any
people can answer those questions.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Publicity, news attention etc. are
nearly independent of importance. We pay a lot of attention to
entertainers, sports figures and other celebrities, but little to
people like scientists and engineers who advance our technology. We
pay lots of attention to things like the hair style or speaking
ability of political candidates, but much less to their records and
how they are likely to govern.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
This is dangerous to our country. Any
representative government depends on voter knowledge and wisdom.
Voters distracted by the irrelevant are more likely to fall for
demagogues than to vote wisely; and that will lead to turmoil or
tyranny, maybe both. And relevance is essentially independent of how
much publicity something gets.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-39922171269199187492016-01-22T13:09:00.001-08:002016-01-22T13:09:59.649-08:00Scandal Saturation
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
What effect will a single scandal have
on a politician? How about multiple scandals? Surprisingly, the
single scandal seems much more likely to purge the powerful. Nixon,
for example, fell victim to the Watergate break-in, even though he
apparently participated only in the cover-up, not the original crime.
That caused him to be the only president in history to resign from
office. The scandal became so well-known that, today, a host of major
and minor scandals having nothing to do with the Watergate office
building get the suffix “gate” attached to their names.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
On the other hand, look at the scandals
in the life of Bill and Hillary Clinton. Insider trading, perjury,
lying about the cause of the Benghazi attack, risking sensitive
national security information on a private server, abuse of women,
and on and on and on. Almost any one of the Clinton scandals is as
shady as Watergate – yet most of the news and many voters ignore
those scandals. Why?</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I am no psychologist and have been
unable to find anything on line to back this up, but my theory is
that multiple scandals diffuse the response. People concentrate on a
single scandal and the target of their anger cannot escape. However,
the more scandals there are involving a particular politician, the
more thinly spread is the reaction. That seems to me to be happening
with the Clintons. Whether deliberately or just because of their lack
of character, they have created a whole herd of scandals. Now, except
for their enemies, people pay little attention to any of those
scandals – and even their enemies are diffusing their attacks, some
concentrating on the abuse issues, some on the email scandal etc.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I do not know the reasons why, but I
suspect people are just so overloaded with scandal news that they are
starting to ignore it. Of course that combines with the media
obsession with making Hillary president. This bodes ill for the
country. It means that we will reject someone who may be a basically
good person with a single flaw while accepting the real scoundrel
because we cannot keep track of all his nefarious characteristics.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I hope some psychologist can enlighten
us on this matter. I hope even more that voters will wake up and pay
attention to all pertinent information, even if they seem to face
overload.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-55577647319377564292016-01-18T14:21:00.000-08:002016-01-18T14:21:29.636-08:00Who Decides? Who Pays? Who Benefits?
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<b>(Note: This is a direct quote from Chapter 15 of my book, "Freedom or Serfdom?) </b></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<b>The Parable of the Pie</b></div>
Polly's Pie Parlor has an unusual business model. You pick the pie
you want, but Polly delivers it to the customer who comes in half an
hour later. You get the pie someone ordered half an hour ago; I hope
you like his taste. And you won't pay for either of those, instead
you pay for the pie somebody ordered two hours ago. No trading of
pies is allowed.<br />
<br />
That is obviously a silly example – or is it? It is an instance
of what is called third-party decision making. One person decides,
someone else pays and yet a third person lives with the decision. Yes
that happens, maybe not in pie parlors, but it does happen in
business, and especially in government.<br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<b>Government and Third-Party Decisions</b></div>
Government decisions are inevitably third-party decisions, made by
someone far from the scene and who neither pays the cost nor lives
with the results. It is worth looking at the problems this causes.<br />
<br />
For any decision we must consider: (1) who decides, (2) who pays,
(3) who lives with the results, and (4) who has the most knowledge of
the situation. The best decisions are made by someone who pays the
price, lives with the results, and is knowledgeable about the issues
to be decided.<br />
<br />
A person who pays but does not live with the consequences will
have an incentive to keep costs down. However, he may not even care
about quality or any results that do not affect him.<br />
<br />
Someone who lives with the results but does not pay has an
incentive to get a good solution, but not to control costs. He may go
for an expensive solution that is only marginally better than
something much cheaper.<br />
<br />
A decision-maker who neither pays nor lives with the solution has
no incentive to either control costs or find a good solution to the
problem. Note that <i>most government decision makers are in this
category.</i> They neither pay the price nor live with the result.<br />
<br />
With government decisions, the decision-makers are usually
insulated from both expense and results. However they do have an
incentive to appear successful, so they tend to be reluctant to
change their decisions. A change would be an admission that they were
wrong, not usually career-enhancing. A bad decision is likely to
remain in effect, much as the fees on climbers of Mt St Helens and Mt
Adams remain in effect.<br />
<br />
A person who pays and who lives with the decision, and who gets to
make that decision, will have an incentive to balance cost and
results. That incentive is likely to lead to the best overall
decision, especially if that person is knowledgeable. Third parties
are unlikely to have the first-hand knowledge possessed by the people
directly involved. Those third parties may be 2,000 miles away from
the situation. Furthermore, they may impose a “one size fits all”
solution, ignoring differences between places as diverse as a big
city like Los Angeles and a rural village where a traffic jam might
mean three cars at a stop sign.<br />
<br />
Third-party decision makers often think of themselves as smarter
and more knowledgeable than the average person. They may even be
correct, but the third party tends to have a different type of
knowledge than the people at the scene. That third party is likely to
have a theoretical background rather than the knowledge that comes
from hands-on experience. Meanwhile, the people directly involved
draw on personal experience and on information from others who have
such experience. And those who pay and live with the results have an
incentive to get more information if they need it.<br />
<br />
For example, a rancher in eastern Oregon may have employees who
drive 50 miles from town each day, then 50 miles back after work.
Employees soon tire of the drive and of the expense of gas and
automobile maintenance. The rancher has a hard time keeping good
people, so he decides to provide housing right on his ranch. Not so
fast! Representatives from urban/suburban areas dominate the state
legislature. They do not make that daily commute, they do not lose
employees who hate the drive, and many probably don't even know the
difference between a bull and a steer. Guess who gets to decide how
to run that ranch? That's right, the legislators from urban
districts, people who want to prohibit such housing. Land use
restrictions require that “Minimum lot sizes in farm and forest
zones range from 80 to 240 acres.”<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">[1]</span></span></a>
That restricts the number of houses a rancher may have for himself
and his employees.<br />
<br />
Ironically, many of the people who support those limits also want
to reduce driving, yet their rules force ranch employees to commute
from town. That is an example of not only third-party decision making
but of stage one thinking. The decision makers do not think beyond
the initial objective.<br />
<br />
As government acquires more power, we find third-parties making
more and more of our decisions. The results are predictable. Our only
advantage is that we can blame someone else for the mistakes.<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<hr align="LEFT" size="1" width="257" />
<div dir="LTR" id="ftn1">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span></a>
<span style="font-size: small;">http://www.landwatch.org/pages/perspectives/accomplishments.htm</span><br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-3462197170567328502016-01-15T11:23:00.000-08:002016-01-15T11:23:15.553-08:00Sucker bait - $3 Billion Lost
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
In recent weeks, Americans have lost
over three billion dollars of their personal money, with most of the
losses suffered by the lowest economic classes, those who can least
afford it – and it is state governments operating that scam.
Furthermore, the news media is complicit, giving free publicity to
the misleading big prizes, but failing to mention the losses.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I am talking about Powerball, though
other lotteries are similarly misleading. Look at all the publicity
about the mislabeled prize of supposedly a billion and a half
dollars. And of course almost nobody looks at where that money came
from: it came from losers, people who bought tickets and got nothing
in return. In fact those people lost well over three billion dollars
to support that alleged billion and a half dollar prize! Only half
the money spent on tickets is returned in prizes. Some 40% goes to
the states and another 10% to retailers selling the tickets. Since
there are also prizes of lesser amounts, the money lost buying
tickets has to amount to well north of three billion dollars. And
since the lowest income people are the most likely to buy tickets,
this amounts to a tax on the people least able to afford it. Then, on
top of that, the prize is an advertising scam, payouts being well
less than advertised.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
In the first place, the big prizes are
not cash of the amount advertised. Any winner wanting a cash payout
will get only about 65% of the advertised price. To get it all, that
winner must accept installments over 30 years, while the lottery
collects interest on the money still unpaid. Then of course the tax
man will take a big chunk of any payout, probably about half of it
between state and federal taxes. That's right, the state that already
gets 40% of the ticket prices then turns around and gets yet more in
the form if income taxes on the winnings.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Of course, as in the case of this
prize, there are often several tickets with the winning numbers, so
they split whatever is left of the prize after taxes and the scam of
the prize not being paid out immediately. The state is the big
winner, while the holders of the winning tickets will probably end up
with about 30 to 35% of the advertised prize. This is a sucker play.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Lotteries are, in fact, a variation on
the idea of providing well-publicized benefits to a small number of
people while ignoring the total cost spread among millions who pay
the price. Chapter 13 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom?,</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
discusses this in terms of spending tax money for projects that
benefit few. The lottery does something similar, benefitting very few
winners at the expense of millions of losers.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I am not naive enough to think that
people are not going to gamble, but it is obscene that the state
encourages an addictive activity that taxes the poor
disproportionately. Nor am I convinced that lotteries are a net gain
for the states sponsoring them. Gambling adicts create both social
and financial problems. They often embezel to support their habit,
and create family problems that damage children and put more people
in jail and on welfare. The benefits of a lottery, if any, are
miniscule compared to the cost citizens pay.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
It is unlikely that we can, in the near
future, reverse the trend of states encouraging gambling. We can,
however, do our part by refusing to participate in this scam, and by
trying to educate our families and friends about just how misleading
lotteries are.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-43098493968023971292016-01-13T14:55:00.000-08:002016-01-13T14:55:29.663-08:00Due Process
“No state shall make or enforce any
law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of
the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life,
liberty, or property, without due process of law...” So says the
14<sup>th</sup> amendment to the U.S Constitution, expanding rights
of the fifth amendment to all inhabitants of the country. That is an
important protection for citizens, a protection sadly being eroded
today. That amendment should protect against such things as being
punished with no opportunity to defend oneself. Today, there are
certain accusations regarded as proof in themselves, with the accused
either allowed no opportunity to defend himself or allowed only a
difficult and expensive defense, and that after the punishment is
already in place.
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Perhaps the most widespread such abuse
is the no-fly list. Almost anybody can accuse someone of terrorist
leanings, whereupon the accused is put on that list – usually
without his knowledge. The accused learns of his de facto conviction
and punishment only when he shows up at the airport. Even members of
Congress have found themselves on that list, just because they have
names similar to someone else put on the list. And it is easy to get
on that list. Previous comments, suspicion (with no solid evidence)
of terrorist leanings, your neighbor's revenge by reporting you, any
of those and more could land you on that list. Then it is difficult
to get off, even once you learn of your punishment. That deprives the
accused of liberty without due process.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
If the statists have their way, they
will also use that list to deprive people of property, specifically
any arms those people may have or want to purchase. They want to make
anyone on that list automatically ineligible to own firearms,
regardless of the reason they are on the list.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nor is this abuse of power likely to
stop there. Some in the Oregon legislature are proposing a law that
would allow any family member, medical provider, or college professor
to put a person's name on a secret list of people prohibited from
buying guns. It would be very difficult to get off that list. The
family nut case would have power to deny the whole family their
constitutional rights. The professor who does not like comments in
class could do the same to students – no due process allowed. The
accused would only learn of their punishment when they try to buy a
gun. Imagine, a wife tries to leave her abusive husband and he keeps
stalking and maybe abusing her, but at the same time puts her name on
that list. Fearing for her life, she gets a concealed weapon permit
and goes to buy a pistol. Only then does she learn that she is on the
list. He can assault, even kill her with no fear that she will be
armed.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Nor is the no-fly list or attempts to
circumvent second amendment rights the only problem. College campuses
are becoming notorious for punishing accused sex abusers with no due
process – and that at the behest of the federal government. While
they cannot jail the accused, they can keep him off campus, deny him
an education, on the word of an accuser – and he is not allowed the
normal defense. A coed angry at a young man can effectively get him
banned with nothing more than her accusation.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
And what about discrimination? Racial
discrimination is of course wrong, but that is another area where the
accusation is considered a conviction. Want to do business with the
government? Better be able to prove that you do not discriminate, the
flimsiest of evidence will disqualify you.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Unless we fight this, we can expect the
problem to expand. This is the perfect tool for the power-hungry.
They will find more and more “special” cases for which they will
allow no due process. Speak out against the powerful? They will do
all they can to deprive you of your rights. If they can, they will
put the burden on you to prove your innocence, rather than on the
accuser to provide evidence of guilt.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-48894149394152538082016-01-08T15:48:00.002-08:002016-01-08T15:48:56.717-08:00Presidential Qualifications, Part 2
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
So what qualifications should we seek
in a president or other office holder? What we need is similar to
what I've previously described as qualifications for judges (See
Chapter 10 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom)</i>:</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<i>Integrity:</i> We must have integrity in any government
official. Without integrity, other ability becomes a means to abuse
the powers of office. An able but corrupt official will use that
ability for his own benefit, not for the good of the country.<br />
<i>Commitment to Constitution and Law: </i><span style="font-style: normal;">Our
elected officials (and the bureaucrats they hire)</span> must be
committed to our constitutional form of government, and to
constitutional law. We have a representative republic with carefully
crafted protections against abuse of power. We must insist that
people we elect uphold those protections.<br />
<i>Subordination of Personal Belief to Law and Constitution:</i>
Our officials must be willing and able to follow the law and
Constitution as written, not dictatorially impose their own ideas on
us.<br />
<i>Intellectual Ability: </i>They must have the ability cut
through the intellectual fog, and decide on the basis of fact, logic,
law and Constitution.<br />
<i>The inner strength to stand up for what is right: </i><span style="font-style: normal;">Officials
</span>are under pressure to go along with their supporters, and with
the people who make the most noise. That pressure they must resist.
They must decide on the basis of law and constitution and resist
government by decibel.<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i>Humility and willingness to listen
to good advice: </i><span style="font-style: normal;">Nobody knows
everything so our leaders must seek and utilize good advice. In fact,
the Bay of Pigs attack, probably the greatest foreign policy debacle
in our history happened partly because smart men in Kennedy's brain
trust did not seek advice from people with knowledge they lacked.
(Described in Irving Janis book, </span><i>Groupthink.</i></div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-75268275089482288592016-01-05T11:24:00.000-08:002016-01-05T11:24:45.166-08:00Presidential Qualifications
<div align="CENTER" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Democracy is the worst form of
government – except for all the others that have been tried.
(Winston Churchill)</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Every four years in this country we
elect a president – sadly, often on the basis of irrelevant
characteristics. Charisma gets votes. So does good hair and the
ability to act like one of the regular folk. A talent for believable
deception can also help. Sometimes people vote for a candidate
because of race or sex, claiming that it time for black or woman
president. Then, once the president takes office, none of those
characteristics does anything to help the economy, stop terrorists,
control crime, or any of the other things we expect from a president.
The same can be said of congressional representatives, governors,
mayors, and other elected officials. Voters should decide on the
basis of real qualification, not superficial things like charisma.</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="color: #333333;">“Timothy </span><span style="color: #333333;">Judge
of the University of Florida </span><span style="color: #333333;">business
school says that being an </span><span style="color: #333333;">extrovert is
correlated with being chosen as a leader, but not with being a good
leader. “We go for these effervescent leaders when what's really
needed is a dull, focused, plodding [type] building effective groups
and </span><span style="color: #333333;">organizations.”</span><sup><span style="color: #333333;"><a class="sdfootnoteanc" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote1sym" name="sdfootnote1anc"><sup>1</sup></a></span></sup></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
Leadership requires two distinct but unrelated abilities. First and
most important, the leader must make wise decisions. Second, he must
motivate people to act on those decisions. Motivation without wisdom
only leads people to Hell faster. It is the demagogue, the potential
tyrant, who is most likely to motivate without wisdom.</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0.4in; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
“Charisma attracts votes. It also causes people to act without
thinking. Extroverts are the people likely to win elections, but not
the most likely to make good decisions. The only possible solution is
for voters to pay more attention to substance and less to image.”
(From my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom? </i><span style="font-style: normal;">Page
259)</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Today, Hillary Clinton and Donald
Trump appear to be by far the leading aspirants for the presidential
nomination of their respective parties. Both reached that position on
the basis of irrelevancies. Hillary gains much support from those who
believe we should have a woman president. Trump is a master of
publicity. In my opinion, neither is qualified to be president. Once
we look beyond the superficial, there is little there. Hillary, asked
about her accomplishments as secretary of state, could not name even
one. Trump, claiming to be a conservative, has proposed increases in
government power by such things as government control of health care.
I've not heard either of them praise limited, constitutional
government.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">Another problem with politicians is
that they are usually convincing talkers. Yet when we look at their
actions we often find those actions unrelated to promises.</span><br />
</div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-style: normal;">I urge voters to look at not only
the promises but the record of politicians. Avoid government by the
silver tongue, by promises etc. People can lie with words much more
easily than they can deceive with actions.</span></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<br /></div>
<div id="sdfootnote1">
<div class="sdfootnote">
<a class="sdfootnotesym" href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#sdfootnote1anc" name="sdfootnote1sym">1</a>
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: small;">U.S. News and World Report,
November 2009, p26</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span>
</div>
</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-10456216073546702742015-12-28T15:43:00.000-08:002015-12-28T15:43:33.267-08:00Government by Decibel
Related to things like university
students demanding censorship of ideas or information: the problem of
government by decibel, the loudest tend to get their way.
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Black Lives Matter, Occupy Wall Street,
or simply the crowd demanding exclusion of some ideas from their
colleges. They make so much noise that nobody looks at how many
people they actually represent. Too many simply assume that any group
that noisy must be important.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
I've no idea what percent of college
students want to exclude some ideas, what fraction of people support
the Occupy Wall Street and related movements, or what percentage want
to claim that Black Lives Matter to the exclusion of all lives
mattering. I doubt anybody has solid data; the questions are simply
not being asked, much less answered. However, it is almost certain
that those groups have influence beyond their numbers. Serious
students who want real education, working people who want to work and
live in peace, Blacks who agree that all lives matter, all those are
likely to be too busy to join the screamfests. That means that the
protestors are self-selected and almost certainly not representative
of the population in general.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Those screamers have excessive
influence for at least two reasons. First, too many decision-makers
pay attention to them and ignore the majority. Second, many in what
we can aptly call the silent majority, allow themselves to be
intimidated and do not speak out.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
This is a travesty for our democratic
society. It puts unwarranted power in the hands of those with no
productive employment, the students who scream instead of studying,
the fanatic wing of any movement, those who have no jobs and plenty
of time to protest. Our government, including university
administrators, is supposed to work for all the people, not just
whoever who can scream the loudest.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The solution is simple, though not
necessarily easy. The silent majority must be silent no more. We must
insist that our representatives represent us, not just the noisy. And
we must insist that tax money supporting colleges be contingent on
those institutions allowing free speech, on any subject. Only when we
do that will we turn around the ridiculous state we now find
ourselves in.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Do you think this will not work? Look
at the facts. Government officials may not agree with the majority,
but they do agree on one thing: they want to keep their jobs. A few
years ago some friends were testifying at the Oregon legislature
about a proposed law. They had data, facts, charts etc. Their
presentation was impressive. Then one state senator took them aside.
“You guys need to understand something about the legislature. We
don't care about your charts and data. What we care about is getting
re-elected.”</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Let's let our representatives know that
their re-election depends on representing all of us, not just the
noisy. Letters to them and to news organizations can go a long way.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-5396045822948746652015-12-24T14:11:00.002-08:002015-12-24T14:11:14.409-08:00Christmas!
(Because tomorrow is Christmas, I'll
postpone further discussion of things like restrictions on speech
until next week.)
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Like most people, I enjoy the Christmas
season. I regard it as a time to celebrate the birth of the Savior of
the World (though he was almost certainly not born in December, more
likely in the spring, but that is another subject). Even those who do
not believe in Him can enjoy the season.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Good will, never in oversupply in this
world, seems to peak at this time of year. I remember a few years ago
reading of a man who went to a local store, one not patronized by the
well-off. He asked if they had anyone who had put Christmas gifts on
layaway and was not unable to pay for them. They did, but not for
long. He paid for those Christmas presents. That is far from the only
example of such generosity this time of year. In some cases, Jews and
others even replace Christians who would have to work, allowing those
Christians to spend the day with their families.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
So I hope you enjoy the season, and
that you help others enjoy it. The lonely often find this time of
year depressing, maybe you can visit some of them. Some children are
sad because their parents cannot afford presents – and many of
those parents are unhappy because they cannot give their children a
happy holiday. Fortunately there are many opportunities to give to
the disadvantaged this time of year. Such giving helps not only the
recipient but the giver as well.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
So I wish all my readers a very happy
Christmas season. If you are a believer, you can celebrate the birth
of the Son of God who gives us eternal life and the opportunity for
forgiveness. If not, you can still enjoy this time of year and the
good will it brings.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
Merry Christmas everybody!</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-65012449230413017262015-12-21T11:19:00.000-08:002015-12-21T11:19:37.518-08:00Immunity to Ideas and Information
<br /><i>Berlin, Germany, 1971: </i>I stood looking at the wall, its
ugly appearance surpassed by an even uglier purpose. It stood four
meters (13 feet) high, topped in places by razor wire. However
Russian and East German authorities were replacing the razor wire
with smooth concrete pipe, large enough in diameter to offer no hand
or foot holds. Razor wire is no deterrent to people fleeing machine
gun bullets.<br />
<br /><br />
<br />
The infamous Berlin wall was built to keep people in and ideas
out. (From Chapter 26 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom?) </i><span style="font-style: normal;">That
is a terrible, tyrannical objective. Not only does it hold in
captivity people denied information, it blocks progress as those
people are deprived of the information necessary to advance
everything from freedom to technology. The fall of the wall was a
cause for celebration as East Germans once again had access to a
variety of ideas, reasoning, and evidence. Surely nobody today would
want to again put in place such a horrible blockade, would they?
Don't be too sure.</span><br />
<br /><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">Today not only are people
creating barriers to information and ideas, but the people erecting
those barriers are the very same people being deprived of
information! On campuses across the country a minority of “students”
demands “safe spaces” where certain viewpoints are prohibited.
They demand “trigger warnings” so they can leave class lest they
be exposed to diverse ideas. While the East Berlin captives sought
information from the West (with the help of some in the west who put
up informational billboards visible over the wall), these new
captives not only fail to seek a variety of information, they demand
that no such information be available. The captives are their own
jailers – and enthusiastic jailers at that.</span><br />
<br /><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">This self-censorship and
censorship of faculty goes so far as to try to prohibit law schools
teaching rape law! Harvard law professor Jeannie Suk described this
in a </span><i>New Yorker</i><span style="font-style: normal;">
article a year ago.
<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trouble-teaching-rape-law">http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trouble-teaching-rape-law</a></span><br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">Let us be clear, rape is a
serious offense and we should do all we can to stop that crime and
punish the rapists. It is for that very reason that law schools must
teach the subject. Failure to do so constitutes dereliction of duty,
and pressure not to teach rape law gives aid and comfort to the
rapists.</span><br />
<br /><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">Nor is rape the only subject some
want to declare off limits. FIRE, the Foundation for Individual
Rights in Education documents and fights against many campus speech
codes. Often those speech codes block presentation of unpopular
political views. If such views are prohibited, we will be right back
to authorities dictating what we can think and discuss. And the
“graduates” of institutions with such restrictions will be
indoctrinated but not educated.</span><br />
<br /><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: normal;">We must fight those campus
restrictions. More on that, probably next time.</span><br />
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-72171827115344975052015-12-15T15:25:00.002-08:002015-12-15T15:25:45.789-08:00Forget the Facts, Just Sling Mud, Part 3(This is the third and final excerpt from Chapter 16 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom.)</i><br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />
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<b>The
Other Side of the Coin – When the Shoe Fits</b></div>
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I'm confident that nearly everyone would agree: unsubstantiated name calling is bad. It is
dishonest and distracts from the real issues. But what if the apple really is rotten? What
if a politician is a thief, a scoundrel, even a traitor? Unless the voters know about such things
they will not be able to vote wisely. Evidence-based, correct
description of politicians is not only good,
it is required if we are to avoid demagogues and keep our freedom. There is a big
difference between unsubstantiated name calling and pointing out
verified problems. If a politician has a track record of lies and broken promises, voters should know about it.
That is true whether those lies and broken promises were to the public or
confined to family and friends.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;">What should we think of </span><span style="color: #333333;">politicians
who cheat on their wives, people like </span><span style="color: #333333;">Anthony
Weiner, </span><span style="color: #333333;">Newt
Gingrich, </span><span style="color: #333333;">Mark
Sanford, or </span><span style="color: #333333;">John
Edwards? Does their private behavior bear on fitness for office? Years ago I
saw a quiz intended to measure people's attitudes toward some </span><span style="color: #333333;">work
issues and help them understand the importance of having the “correct”
attitudes. One question asked, “If you found out that your boss was having an </span><span style="color: #333333;">extramarital
affair, would you think less of him as a boss?” The “</span><span style="color: #333333;">right”
answer was that no, that should not </span><span style="color: #333333;">change
how you regard him. His personal life has </span><span style="color: #333333;">nothing
to do with his </span><span style="color: #333333;">work
life.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #333333;">That “</span><span style="color: #333333;">right”
answer is nonsense.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-indent: .4in;">
<span style="color: #333333;">To believe that a person can have
high </span><span style="color: #333333;">integrity
at </span><span style="color: #333333;">work
while lacking </span><span style="color: #333333;">integrity
in personal life is to believe that the person is split into two different </span><span style="color: #333333;">characters.
It just doesn't happen. If someone cheats on his spouse and not on his </span><span style="color: #333333;">employer
there is a simple reason: at </span><span style="color: #333333;">present
he finds it attractive, and of acceptable </span><span style="color: #333333;">risk
to cheat on his spouse but not on his </span><span style="color: #333333;">employer.
What will happen when he finds it attractive and of acceptable </span><span style="color: #333333;">risk
to cheat his </span><span style="color: #333333;">employer
(or the country)? You don't have to be a rocket scientist to answer that
question.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a>
Integrity is not situation-dependent. The person who is honest only when
honesty is convenient, or when dishonesty is d</span><span style="color: #333333;">angerous,
lacks </span><span style="color: #333333;">integrity.
When the situation </span><span style="color: #333333;">changes,
he will cheat. That is true in family life, in </span><span style="color: #333333;">business,
and in government.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-indent: .4in;">
<span style="color: #333333;">Newt
Gingrich, for example, cheated on at least two wives, eventually divorcing
both.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a> He then
talked of Christian </span><span style="color: #333333;">forgiveness,
using that to try to convince people that they should support him. As a
Christian I believe in repentance and </span><span style="color: #333333;">forgiveness,
but so what? The issue is </span><span style="color: #333333;">trust, not </span><span style="color: #333333;">forgiveness.
In fact, I am in no position to forgive Gingrich; he did not wrong me. His
ex-wives and his </span><span style="color: #333333;">children
must deal with that. For </span><span style="color: #333333;">voters the issue is </span><span style="color: #333333;">trust;
and </span><span style="color: #333333;">trust
must be </span><span style="color: #333333;">earned.
In fact while Christian scripture repeatedly commands us to forgive, I do not
know of any scriptural admonition to </span><span style="color: #333333;">trust
the offender. Jesus even instructed his disciples to be “wise as serpents.”<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="background: white;"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="WW-FootnoteReference12"><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[3]</span></span></span></span></span></a><span style="background: white;"> </span>Surely such </span><span style="color: #333333;">wisdom
would include trusting only those who are trustworthy.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-indent: .4in;">
<span style="color: #333333;">In our romantic lives, </span><span style="color: #333333;">business,
or politics we must require that people be trustworthy. That </span><span style="color: #333333;">integrity
should be manifest by </span><span style="color: #333333;">actions, not just </span><span style="color: #333333;">words.
The politician who fails to demonstrate </span><span style="color: #333333;">integrity
by his </span><span style="color: #333333;">actions
should be rejected – be those </span><span style="color: #333333;">actions
public or private.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">We must seek the </span></em><em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">truth about our </span></em><em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">politicians. If they are liars and
cheaters, we should know that and not </span></em><em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">vote for them. If they are falsely
accused, we should also know that and not hold the </span></em><em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">accusations against them. And of course
we should refrain from unsubstantiated </span></em><em><span style="color: #333333; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal;">name calling ourselves.</span></em></div>
<div style="mso-element: footnote-list;">
<br clear="all" />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">There are a few people who agree to “open marriages”
wherein each allows the other as many affairs as he or she wants. However such
marriages are, as far as I can tell, officially unheard of among politicians so
they need not concern us here.</span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 12.0pt;">http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2937633</span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn3;" title=""><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="FootnoteCharacters"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Mangal; mso-bidi-language: HI; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-fareast-language: HI; mso-font-kerning: .5pt;">[3]</span></span></span></span></a><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt;">Holy Bible, Matthew 10:16</span></div>
</div>
</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-87940392081582757652015-12-11T11:34:00.000-08:002015-12-11T11:34:05.784-08:00Forget the Facts, Just Sling Mud, Part 2
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="color: #333333;">(This is the second of probably three posts from Chapter 16 of my book, <i>Freedom or Serfdom?)</i><b> </b></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<span style="color: #333333;"><b>Other Sneaky
Tricks</b></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<span style="color: #333333;">One common manifestation of Godwin's law
today is what is appropriately called </span><span style="color: #333333;"><i>turnspeak,
</i></span><span style="color: #333333;">that is, accusing your opponents of
your own sins</span><span style="color: #333333;"><i>. </i></span><span style="color: #333333;">Psychologists
call this projection.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333;">Turnspeak goes back at least as far as
Hitler's invasion of </span><em><span style="font-style: normal;">Czechoslovakia
and Poland. Trying to excuse his own imperialism, he claimed that
those countries were complicit in a plot to invade Germany, and he
even staged a false Polish attack on a German radio station.</span></em><em><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><sup><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">[1]</span></span></sup></a></em><em><sup><span style="font-style: normal;">
</span></sup></em><em><span style="font-style: normal;">That is what
turnspeak is; turning the facts around 180 degrees as Hitler did when
he accused the Czechs and Poles of the imperialism he himself was
committing. And it is what all too many in politics do today. Come
out against big government and they will likely call you fascist, in
spite of the fact that fascism is a form of big government.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">One problem the turnspeak
victims face is that the accusation many seem so obviously false that
it should need no refutation – and it seems trite to refute
something so flagrant. Plus refutation risks involvement in a “you
are/no I'm not” argument. However, if allowed to go unanswered, the
accusation will stick. It is probably best to just do something like
point out that the free man is the opposite of a fascist while the
statist wants big government just like the fascists did.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">However, the real test is
when we hear someone else called fascist or something similar. Do we
just accept the accusation, or do we examine the evidence? Politics
creates so much turnspeak that we should be careful about which
accusations we accept. If there is solid evidence, we can accept the
accusation. Otherwise, we owe it to ourselves and other citizens to
publicly oppose the lie.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">And there are yet worse forms
of political chicanery.</span></em><br />
<br />
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<em><span style="font-style: normal;"><b>Other
Nastiness</b></span></em></div>
<div style="line-height: 150%;">
<br /></div>
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="kphg63f8711_18"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="kphg63f8711_10"></a><em>False
flag operations </em><em><span style="font-style: normal;">and </span></em><em>agents
provocateurs</em><em> </em><em><span style="font-style: normal;">are
the foulest excrement of politics. The idea is to make opponents look
unattractive no matter what it takes, honesty and integrity be
damned. The agent provocateur tries to goad his enemy into doing
something stupid; for example he may try to get him to appear to
agree with a racist remark. The false flag operative pretends to be
one of his opponents while doing something stupid or racist. There
have been several attempts of these types, especially against the Tea
Party. </span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">For example, in 2010 a school teacher in Beaverton, Oregon
created a web site urging people to crash the Tea Party and to “use
misspelled protest signs, make wild claims during interviews or other
actions that would damage public opinion of the party.”</span></em><em><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2"><sup><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">[2]</span></span></sup></a></em><em><span style="font-style: normal;">
That is an example of a false flag operation – and I know statists
who defended that deception. Of course, should that pretender manage
to goad his targets into doing something stupid, he will become a
successful agent provocateur.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">But that was just a rogue
teacher, right? I'm afraid not. At least one former high ranking
Democrat tried the same trick. Kathy Sullivan, former chairman of the
New Hampshire Democratic Party, openly sought Democrats “willing to
pose as Tea Partiers and hold up anti-Obama, racist signs at the Tea
Parties.”</span></em><em><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3"><sup><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-style: normal;">[3]</span></span></sup></a></em><em><span style="font-style: normal;">
It would be difficult to think of a more dishonest dirty trick.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">There will always be at least
a few liars around, and in politics some will engage in such things
as false flag or agent provocateur operations. That should be
illegal; perpetrators should go to jail. Such shenanigans attack the
very integrity of our political system. Until we have such a law,
free men need to identify those deceivers and expose them publicly.
And we need to be careful to not fall victim to provocations designed
to get us to act stupidly. Of course as fee men, in the Tea Party or
not, we must never use such dirty tricks ourselves, and we must try
to purge from our ranks anyone who does. If we want the trust of the
voters, we must strive to be beyond reproach.</span></em><br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-style: normal;">By being aware of the dirty
tricks some statists use, we can defend ourselves. That we must do if
we are to defend our freedom. Our opponents have those dirty tricks
on their side, plus an attractive sounding idea described in the next
chapter. Unless we expose them, we will lose our freedom.</span></em><br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<hr align="LEFT" size="1" width="257" />
<div dir="LTR" id="ftn1">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[1]</span></span></a>
<span style="font-size: small;">http://www.warhistoryonline.com/articles/wwiis-first-victim-a-nazi-plot-to-provide-an-excuse-to-invade-poland.html</span><br />
</div>
<div dir="LTR" id="ftn2">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[2]</span></span></a>
http://www.oregonlive.com/beaverton/index.ssf/2010/04/school_officials<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-size: small;">_
investigate_beaverton_teacher_who_urged_people_to_crash_the_tea_party.html</span></span><br />
</div>
<div dir="LTR" id="ftn3">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1675444709777940325#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[3]</span></span></a>
<span style="font-size: small;">http://americaswatchtower.com/2010/04/14/new-hampshire-democrats-search-for-tea-party-crashers-to-hold-up-racist-signs/</span><br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
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</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1675444709777940325.post-78218672798249389842015-12-08T10:13:00.003-08:002015-12-08T10:13:36.459-08:00Keep Muslims Out?<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The controversy over Donald Trump's
latest statement about Muslims deserves comment. In case anyone
hasn't heard, he said we should not allow any Muslim immigrants into
this country. (He actually worded it as, “Donald J. Trump is
calling for...” I shall not at present comment on his tendency to
describe his statements in the third person instead of just saying,
“I am calling for...” However the psychologists may be able to
make something of that.)</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
While we clearly need to keep
terrorists out of our country, and his statement has created
justifiable controversy, that controversy has not yet mentioned one
salient fact: Trump's proposal is essentially unworkable. To do it,
we either have to stop all immigration, or find some way to determine
who is and is not a Muslim. No, we cannot just ask them.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br />
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
The sad fact is that the terrorists who
would enter our country are world class liars. To them, lying in
pursuit of their objectives is not only acceptable, it is expected,
regarded as a positive good. The terrorists wanting to come to our
shores will simply claim to be Christian, or even atheist or Jewish,
and we have no way to determine if they are telling the truth.
Trump's proposal would keep out the honest Muslims while allowing in
the fanatic terrorists.</div>
Hal Lillywhitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05532281493474571590noreply@blogger.com2